The USDA has revised its 2025 US corn production higher — not lower as much of the trade had expected — leading to an upward revision in ending stocks and reinforcing the view that supplies will remain burdensome in the 2025-26 marketing year.
In its much-anticipated monthly supply-demand update on Monday, the USDA pegged last year’s American corn crop at record 17.021 billion bu, an increase of 269 million bu from the government’s November estimate and a hefty 14% above a year earlier.
The revision was driven by a 0.5-bu/acre increase in the average yield to a record 186.5 bu, up 7.2 bu from a year earlier, along with a 1.3-million-acre rise in harvested area to 91.3 million acres.
Since July, US estimated US harvested area has expanded by 4.5 million acres and now sits 10% above 2024.
The 2025 crop blows the doors off the previous high set in 2023 by 1.7 billion bu, or more than 40 million tonnes.
Beginning stocks for 2025-26 were also revised 17 million bu higher this month to 1.551 billion bu, bringing the total estimated marketing year supply to 18.597 billion bu, up from 18.309 billion previously and well above 16.677 billion in 2024-25.
On the demand side, total US corn use for 2025-26 was revised higher by 90 million bu to 16.37 billion bu, largely reflecting stronger feed and residual demand. Feed and residual use was raised 100 million bu to 6.2 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September–November quarter as shown in the latest Grain Stocks report, also released today.
Partially offsetting that increase, food, seed, and industrial use was trimmed slightly due to reduced corn use for glucose, dextrose, and high fructose corn syrup. Export demand was left unchanged at 3.2 billion bu, while ethanol demand also remained steady at 5.6 billion.
With supply growth outpacing demand, U.S. ending stocks were raised 198 million bu month over month to 2.227 billion bu, well above the average trade guess of 1.985 billion bu. On a year-over-year basis, ending stocks are now up roughly 46%, highlighting the scale of the supply buildup.
Despite the heavier balance sheet, the USDA raised the season-average farm price received by producers by a dime to $4.10/bu, reflecting recent strength in cash markets and feed demand.
Globally, coarse grain production for 2025-26 was also revised higher, up 14.8 million metric tons to 1.591 billion tonnes. Foreign corn production increased, led by China, where output was raised to a record 301.2 million tonnes, up from 295 million previously and 294.92 million a year ago.
As a result, global corn ending stocks were lifted 11.8 million tonnes this month to 290.91 million, adding to the broader narrative of ample world supplies.
Corn futures reacted strongly negatively to today’s report, with contracts down between 15-25 cents this afternoon.
